Afghanistan the exit strategy and resulting vacuum

As the international coalition forces prepare to withdraw the South East Asian analysts begin to worry about the resulting vacuum and extreme eagerness of neighboring countries to fill in the vacuum and exploit the Afghan situation to their maximum use.At the forefront is Pakistan military that due to its past involvement in Afghanistan in Soviet era and than during Taliban’s rule has strong connections with Taliban leadership even in the toughest times after 9/11 Pakistan’s Inter Services intelligence agency did not abandon its assets in Afghanistan but instead helped to keep the command and control structure of Afghan talibans in Quetta.

During the presence of international forces in Afghanistan India supported the reconstruction of country and also Baloch nationalist leaders stayed in Afghanistan. During these years Pakistan also significantly increased the China’s presence in Balochistan, the resource rich territory that accounts for more than 45% land of Pakistan and has a sea port. Against the wishes of Baloch nation China has continued investing heavily in Baloch sea port of Gawader. Hence soon after the withdrawal of international coalition forces it’s not only Pakistan military establishment that will be supporting its Taliban movement to retake all the positions in Afghanistan and push India out of the country but also China would be supporting that initiative too.

This has strategic implications for Pakistan and China, Pakistan on its part has been in a state of war against Baloch nation it has used its Army against civilians, chemical weapons, kidnappings, killings of political and student leaders and infamous torture cells to overcome Baloch national struggle for freedom and an Afghanistan under Taliban’s ensures Pakistan that no Baloch leader could go into exile there.

Secondly Pakistan also sees the militant religious organizations such as Afghan Taliban’s as well as internal organization such as those fighting in Kashmir (and involved in Mumbai attacks) as important components of its future designs against India.

Most importantly Pakistan and China see a Taliban rule in Afghanistan as their only viable option to keep Indian completely out of Afghan scene and gain a safe and exclusive access to Central Asian countries through Afghanistan and then to Gulf Sea through Baloch seaport of Gawader.

This plan obviously involves taking back everything to Taliban era which means no education for girl, no human rights, no political and freedom of speech. That seems to be the dilemma where international coalition troop commanders wish to withdraw handing over the control to Afghan forces its evident that Taliban’s backed by Pakistan military intelligence with a logistical base at Quetta are far better off in the battle.

Baloch national struggle for independence offers a great opportunity for a stable independent, democratic government in Afghanistan because Pakistan has access to Afghanistan through Baloch territory and an independent Baloch state would be a natural buffer zone. But currently the coalition commanders are planning for a quick withdrawal even if it means an unstable Afghanistan ruled by Taliban’s.