Afghanistan beyond withdrawal; why Indian concerns will be ignored

Afghanistan beyond withdrawal; why Indian concerns will be ignored

On paper the Indian policy on Afghanistan is an ideal one, it can be summarized as follows,

*Continued support for democracy in Afghanistan despite failing of Karzai’s administration

*No negotiations with terrorists or those who are against women’s role in society

*Strengthening institutions for a stable Afghanistan

But, as usual Pakistan’s military general’s seem well equipped to influence the decision making process in the western democracies in their favor. A common reader may find that appalling because Pakistan’s army has been blamed, for right reasons, of playing a double game. It did not cut its support to religious outfits that are undermining peace efforts in Afghanistan.

But we have to understand that despite all else Pakistan’s generals did get involved in the war efforts against religious extremists to a certain extent. Due to its sheer size, military power and economic stability India was expected to contribute towards efforts for stability and peace in Afghanistan, after all its India who has the biggest threat from Pakistan sponsored groups working in Afghanistan. Yet India as usual, stayed away from any military contribution. Its sole contribution was development contracts for Indian companies and some training/s.

Indian government is very concerned how international community can negotiate with Taliban and abandon an unstable Afghanistan in India’s backyard. But the fact of the matter is that every nation has its own national security assessment and western democracies cannot sacrifice their young and bright soldiers for Indian security.

 Despite reports from Humans Rights Watch, Amnesty international and other human rights groups, a terrified Indian parliament cannot even talk about human rights issues in Balochistan; Whereas Pakistan openly supports and endorses pro-Pakistan Kashmiri militant groups around the globe.

India does not like Taliban in Afghanistan, but is too afraid to confront them militarily where it had an excellent opportunity to do so in the last decade. With regard to stability, democracy and empowerment of women in Afghanistan, the government of India has an excellent wish list but the problem is that they are too afraid to step in militarily. The western policy makers seem to have clearly noticed this lack of willingness on India’s part during their presence in Afghanistan.

 

It is therefore safe to assume that negotiations with Taliban will continue and Pakistan’s ISI will eventually get some sort of place on the table and a greater role in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of troops. This is less than ideal solution, Afghanistan will remain unstable under ISI influence, Pakistan’s army will continue its atrocities against Baloch people in Balochistan and Indian government will have to worry about jihadists in its backyard in Afghanistan.

 

While addressing UN panel,Baloch express the intense desire for freedom from Pakistan’s occupation

Pakistan’s powerful military has used every inhuman and negative tactic imaginable or unimaginable for that purpose, to paint Baloch nation’s national struggle for freedom as something else; a quest for provincial autonomy, an adventurism of few leaders, wishful thinking of collegiate youth, and a campaign by Jews. These are just a few labels that ISI and It’s supported religious groups used against Baloch resistance movement, yet Baloch nation has continued the struggle for independence of their homeland from Pakistan and Iran; without substantial support either from Muslim countries of OIC or western democracies; even though the secular outlook and ideological political maturity of Baloch, makes it a natural ally of western democracies. Pakistan’s army has been openly targeting Baloch people in their own homeland and Pakistan’s consulates and ISI supported organizations in the west have been very actively against Baloch political activists, especially against their asylum petitions.

But despite all the negative tactics, killings, enforced disappearances and torture when it came to presenting their case to United Nation’s working group against enforced disappearances, Baloch expressed their burning desire of freedom eloquently and despite all efforts by ISI to the contrary expressed categorically that Baloch do not have faith on Pakistan’s institutions. Furthermore, Baloch explained to UN group that Pakistan’s military through its secret agencies and other militant organizations is targeting Baloch people so as it could coerce them to accept Pakistan’s illegal and brutal occupation of their homeland.

United Nation’s working group conducted meetings with state officials as well as Baloch groups, that are representing the families of the victims, and it is generally believed that group has reasonable understanding of core issue and nature of inhuman tactics that State of Pakistan is using against Baloch civilians, it has to been seen as to what extent the group would go against the State of Pakistan and its powerful military. Given the politics at UN headquarters it would not be feasible for the group to highlight the deliberate nature of these inhuman acts by State of Pakistan against Baloch civilians and it is expected that UN working group would sugar coat the language so as “certain elements in security apparatus” would be blamed and State of Pakistan would be requested to investigate

These limitations of the working group are very frustrating to Baloch political activists and civilians but given the current support for independence of Balochistan at UN where India continuous to shy away from the subject, Muslim countries of OIC strongly support Pakistan and western democracies continue supporting Pakistan despite its links with Taliban in Afghanistan.

The Muslim countries in OIC are appalled at Baloch resistance movement because firstly it’s not led by a religious cleric and secondly Baloch have absolutely no desire or inclination to be associated with either the Saudi or Shia wings of OIC.

Still at the end of the day the visit of United Nation’s working group is an important land mark for Baloch people through strength of their political commitment have been resisting the onslaught of trained army that is equipped with nuclear weapons. The mutilated dead bodies of Baloch activists that surface in Balochistan, are mockery of global human rights and democratic principles.

Thinking beyond Pakistan; The only sustainable solution to violence and extremism in the region.

 

Finally; the much awaited decision has been announced, before the fragile civilian government of Pakistan could do so, His Highness The chief of army staff, General Ishfaq Pervaiz Kiyani granted his kind permission.  Rawalpindi (all right lets add Islamabad too) and NATO have both called the opening of supply routes a positive development, but it’s worth mentioning that ISI used this period of ban on NATO supplies for strengthening its relationship with its implementing partners or assets and hence created the “Defense of Pakistan”, which is nothing more than an ISI associated group of militants, politicians and right wingers.

This includes militants who are involved in extremist activities beyond Pakistan’s borders, those who have been killing moderate Baloch political activists and students, and the powerful groups that have been torching NATO supply vehicles, under complete protection of ISI field staff.

With international forces so close to Balochistan, the homeland of Baloch nation, that has grabbed the attention human rights organization due to human rights violations of worst kind by Pakistan’s military secret services and frontier constabulary (FC), the hope was that Baloch and international forces would unite against Pakistan sponsored talibanization of  the region. After all they were both fighting the same enemy, and Baloch of all people in that region have most secular and non-militant dream for their future State.

But Alas; for NATO field commanders the only quick solution was to bribe Pakistan into somehow taking action against the very forces it had created and relied upon for its so called strategic depth. Here is the worst part, which one would even not expect in a cheap novel, during General Musharraf’s era when Pakistan army was getting billions of dollars from western governments to combat terrorism; it was in fact hiding OBL in one of its military towns. At the same time terrorists with documented links in Pakistan attacked and killed dozens of innocent civilians in Mumbai; and of course the excess funding encouraged Pakistan’s army to intensify its ongoing slow genocide of Baloch people; thus during  his bombastic speech on television Pakistan’s chief of  army staff boasted about his military’s power, equipment and resources and issued a warning to Baloch people that either you bow your head to occupying Pakistan’s army or you will be exterminated. His were not the empty words Pakistan’s army has acted upon its threat and Baloch leaders, political, journalist, lawyers, doctors, engineers, students, writers have seen been wiped out at an alarming rate.

One would think that having witnessed the above situation, NATO commanders and western decision makers would have realized that Pakistan has not, and will never support the moderate and democratic forces in the region; consequently shifting their Pakistan centric anti-terrorism policy towards a community based resistant movement that would resist all of ISI’s sinister designs in the region. Baloch by default would have been an ideal candidate for such a community based partnership with international forces that did not happen; the focus remains on appeasing an ever arrogant Pakistan army through funding, frequent dignitary visits and empty threats. It is obvious that the result of such a strategy would be far from satisfactory!

Chicago Summit, Afghanistan exit strategy and Pakistan army

Amidst well-coordinated bold terrorist attacks, a growing indication of strong logistical and planning support from places beyond Afghanistan’s boundaries, and early morning Presidential press conferences, both sides in Afghanistan are claiming a victory. What is certain is that international force will start withdrawing from Afghanistan sooner than later. It therefore, should not be surprising if Pakistan’s army is busy in damage control with regard to its relationships with Taliban.  Traditionally Pakistan and Iran have been on the same page when it came to suppressing Baloch nation, whose land is divided between the two countries, but in Afghanistan they have had their differences on the choice of partners. But during the recent attacks on NATO supply line by the so called non state actors or ISI’s implementing partners and subsequent block on NATO supplies by Pakistan’s Army, the Iranian President rushed to Pakistan and following two issues were at the forefront of the agenda,

·         Coordinated military action against Baloch nationalist and Jundullah on Pakistan and Iranian occupied part of Baloch homeland respectively, to facilitate development of gas pipeline between two countries.  

·         Pushing their respective militant groups in Afghanistan and agreeing on a power sharing mechanism after withdrawal of international forces.

As was expected Pakistan’s military has decided to reopen NATO supply line but not without additional conditions. The GHQ in Pakistan is one of the best pundits of American foreign policy and internal politics simply because it’s the American tax payers money that for generations supported the lavish life style of Pakistan’s army generals from Ayub Khan to General Kiyani, off course the ISI chiefs including the mastermind behind Haqqni network, Hameed Gul, have also been amongst top beneficiaries. Therefore Pakistan army was not expected to let go of such an important source of funding and the fact of the matter is that Pakistan’s army prefers to play the middle man. Their longstanding relationship with pentagon and west has convinced them that they can, and always have, played on both sides.

Another important issue that made Pakistan’s generals (parliaments committees are a joke) to reopen the supply line was growing international and especially US concern on human rights violations in Balochistan. Again Pakistan’s army generals realize that their brutalities against Baloch civilians during President Musharraf’s era were completely brushed under the carpet by west because of their halfhearted and dual role in war against religious militants in the region hence they have decided to travel the same path so that the genocide of Baloch nation could go on without any reaction from western democracies. Besides Pakistan’s regular army and FC the ISI sponsored group “Defense of Pakistan” has also announced Jihad against Baloch civilians and political activists. One of the major organizations in Defense of Pakistan is Jammat u Dawa that has already decided a comprehensive multifactorial “Balochistan plan” which comprises of attacking Baloch nationalists, student activists, journalists and freedom fighters on one end and establishing free medical treatment camps on the other. It must be noted that Pakistan’s military and its allied religious militant groups do not allow local and international neutral NGOs to operate in Balochistan but Jammat u Dawa, despite its militant wing and announcement of war against Baloch, has been granted access by Pakistan’s secret agencies. 

 Meanwhile, Baloch are being hunted by Pakistan’s military and paramilitary forces in their own homeland as well as Baloch diaspora overseas is threatened, intimidated and constantly ridiculed by Pakistan’s consulates throughout the west. Likewise pro-Pakistan groups in the west are busy stepping up their hate campaign against small number of Baloch diaspora in the west. Baloch under Pakistan’s occupation are worried about their well-being and are economically crippled. It’s becoming exceptionally hard for Baloch nation to feed their children. Internationally Baloch diaspora are the least funded and supported group of all stateless people in the world. Among stateless people in the western cities such as Kurds, Tamils, Palestinians, Kashmiris, Baloch diaspora has the lowest per capita income. It is ironic that Pakistan continues its forcible occupation of Baloch homeland and genocide of Baloch nation and yet it claims billions of dollars from international community to give them access to routes that travel entirely through Baloch homeland to southern Afghanistan. In Pakistan thousands of Baloch civilians have been targeted by military operations and at least 300 students, activists, and nationalist leaders have been killed in custody by Pakistan’s secret agencies. Internationally Baloch do not have a single office in the entire North America a region that spends billions of dollars of Pakistan’s army that is the brutal killer of Baloch civilians.

Nuclear armed Pakistan army is far more dangerous than any other militant organization in the world especially when many of its high level officers have been arrested in the past few years trying to mastermind a religious coup within military. Empowerment of Baloch nation is essential to resist Pakistan’s sinister designs for the region and to establish a neutral, liberal and stable state along the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Western leaders and Governments have not supported this idea thus far, but it must be kept in mind that with the fall of liberal, peace loving Baloch nation in the region Afghanistan will regrow into a ghost that it once was and will haunt world peace for centuries.

Secret BBC - Pakistan Double Cross on Terrorism - Full

Pakistan’s ISI launches holy war against “Baloch” and NATO supply line in Pakistan

Formal announcement was made by such powerful ISI partners as Jammat u Dawa,, leaders from Kashmiri jihadi groups and other likeminded militant organizations who are brought under one umbrella called “Defense of Pakistan”. In Balochistan a similar shadowy organizationhas been claiming the killings of Baloch activists in past on the pretext thatBaloch political activists are agents of India and Jews. This announcement of Jihad against Baloch and NATO supplies was cheered by such prominent military figures as Hamid Gul and son of former army chief and dictator Zia ul Haq. MeanwhilePakistan and Iran in their recent high level discussions have agreed to carry on with controversial gas pipeline project that travels through heart of Baloch homeland, a territory jointly occupied by Iran and Pakistan. Recent visit of Iranian president to Pakistan was specifically focused on suppressing Baloch national struggle for freedom and an agreement on political power sharing in Afghanistan after NATO withdrawal in near future.

Baloch freedom struggle, an indigenous secular movement that has been going on since occupation of Balochistan by Pakistani forces, has a strange relationship with western powers. During Afghan war eara Baloch were fighting with militant religious forces then called “mujahedeen” but western governments were pouring money and equipment to these religious militant outfits to defeat Soviet Union.In recent times Pakistan’s Army under Musharraf dictatorship received billions of dollars in aid and military equipment to fight Taliban’s. It has been now documented that the surveillance equipment and military funds were used for
genocide of secular Baloch people whereas Pakistan’s military provided safe heavens to international religious terrorists. Pakistan’s military kept Osama Bin Ladin in a fortress at military town away from battle zone and US drone attacks. Similarly key Taliban leaders are based in Quetta and Loralai Cantonment areas, where they are busy planning sophisticated attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan.

NowISI is coordinating a second group of loosely linked militant terrorist organizations such as Jammat u Dawa, Kashmiri groups and some local religious group to launch a holy war against Baloch and NATO supply line through Balochistan, with an objective to annihilate secular Baloch nationalist groups and increase attacks on NATO supplies (once they are open) by non-state actors. It seems probable that Pakistan’s ISI and Iran’s regime have been to set aside their differences, at least temporarily, on their preference for Shite and Sunni religious militant groups in Afghanistan.

Creationof an independent, secular and stable Balochistan is the best option to prevent ISI involvement in Southern Afghanistan as well as putting adequate pressure on Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. An independent Balochistan also offers a safe route for logistic supplies to Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region through its Gawader port. But it requires, on part of western policy makers, a major shift from reliance on Pakistan’s military and ISI to supporting indigenous national independence freedom movement of Baloch nation.

Pakistan's military responds to US State Department's concern by killing Brahamdagh Bugti's sister and niece.

Pakistan's military and its intelligence agencies have a strategic response to all Baloch problems which consists of a multifactorial approach to elminate Baloch people ,hence on one hand a massive number of pashtun talibans have been imported from Afghanistan to change the demogrphics and on the other hand military is busy in a systematic slow genocide of Baloch nation since creation of Pakistan.

Whenever a baloch leader raises voice against Pakistan's genocide of Baloch nation he is elminated by Pakistan's power military yet Baloch nation has kept its national freedom movement alive despite all the brutal tactics of Pakistan's army. The role of western powers to protect the basic human rights of endangered Baloch nation from Pakistan's mad military can be summarized as "shameful". Recently US State Department articulated its soft concern and requested Pakistan to negotiate with Baloch. That was enough for Pakistan's powerful military to target Brahamdagh Bugti's sister and her innocent child in Karachi, the message is loud and clear for both Baloch nation and western powers.

For Baloch leaders its a direct threat that even if you are outside of Pakistan yet ISI can locate and target your extended family members included women and children. To the western powers its a continuation of Pakistan's Army's arrogant policy as it blocks NATO's supply line, continues supporting talibans and mocks US State Department's concern over human rights violations in Balochistan by killing Brahamdagh Bugti's sister and many other Baloch political activists.

Baloch nation will continue its national struggle for freedom but it will be interesting to see how western powers continue appeasing Pakistan despite its record on human rights.